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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.