Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The typical count of per-day murders each month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official statistics. However, security analysts have warned that murder figures could fail to indicate improved national safety.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This data was provided by the director of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the lowest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it might mask periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.